What's Happening In Newington

582
FXUS61 KOKX 152039
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
339 PM EST Thu Jan 15 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes with forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1.) Much colder air arriving on gusty west winds through
tonight.

2.) Light snow accumulation possible late Friday night into
Saturday before mixing with or changing to rain. Light
accumulations up to 1 inch possible, mainly north and west of
NYC.

3.) Chance for snow some time Sunday into Sunday night. The
track, timing, and intensity are still highly uncertain at this
time.

4.) Cold next week. Lows likely in the single digits and teens
Monday night and Tuesday night.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Upper trough will move through the area tonight with deepening
surface low pressure tracking north across the Canadian Maritimes
into Friday. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure builds
east from the Ohio Valley. The tight pressure gradient will
produce winds gusts up to 35 mph, especially during during
early the morning hours Friday with a secondary shot of cold
air.

Temperatures will steadily fall through tonight with lows by
daybreak Saturday in the upper teens to lower 20s. In addition,
wind chill values will drop into the teens tonight and even
into the the single digits as the night progresses. Highs on
Friday will get into the lower and mid 30s. These readings are
a few degrees below normal.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
There is increasing confidence for a shot of light warm
advection precipitation after midnight Friday into Saturday.
Model vertical temperature profiles support all snow initially
as precipitation breaks out, however, with a strengthening
southerly flow out ahead of low pressure, temperatures will
begin to rise the second half of Friday night. Boundary layer
will continue to warm into Saturday with highs expected to get
well into the 30s inland and the lower 40s at the coast. Thus,
expect coastal locations to see some rain mix in the morning and
possibly over to plain rain. Even inland areas could see some
mix by afternoon. At this time, only expecting up to an inch of
snowfall, mainly north and west of NYC. No headlines at this
time.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Large spread and inconsistency remains with the model solns. The
pattern however has suggested for a long time a sys in this time
period, so the exact details are the biggest challenge. Of course,
it doesn`t take much for a wide right complete miss, but have some
confidence in the AI-GFS which indicates an east of the benchmark
yet impactful sys. NBM pops are 20-40, so these seem to be in a good
place for now and made no changes.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
The modeling has been consistently cold for next week - not record
breaking - but cold nonetheless. No changes to the NBM, although it
is noteworthy that lows Tue ngt and Wed ngt are actually colder in
the NBM than the MEX, which is unusual. The MEX might be keying in
on the winds as a limiting factor. If there is snow on the ground,
would expect the lower NBM numbers to be verify.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure then gradually builds in through Friday. A
frontal system approaches late Friday into Friday night.

VFR through the TAF period.

W winds sustained 15-20kt with gusts 25-30kt for the remainder of
today into tonight. These winds will remain gusty until they
subside and back SW 18-21Z tomorrow, dropping to around 10kt
sustained.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

There may be a brief lull in winds tonight between 00-06Z.

.OUTLOOK FOR 21Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Friday Night: VFR early. Late overnight, MVFR or lower at times
with snow.

Saturday: Mainly VFR. Chance MVFR or lower at times with rain and/or
snow.

Sunday: Chance of MVFR or lower in snow.

Monday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Tuesday: VFR. W wind gusts 20-25 kt.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
On the backside of deepening low pressure to the north, west
winds will produce gales on the ocean waters tonight into Friday
morning with SCA conditions elsewhere. The strongest winds will
arrive during the early morning hours Friday and then begin to
subside by late morning as a ridge of high pressure builds in
from the west. Seas will get up to 7 to 10 ft on the ocean
waters, and 3 to 6 ft across Long Island Sound. While winds fall
below SCA criteria in the afternoon into early evening hours
Friday, seas are forecast to linger above 5 ft on the ocean
waters through Saturday night.

Outside of some lingering 5 ft seas on the ocean, winds and waves
blw sca lvls on Sun. Winds pick up on Mon with low pres developing
over the Atlc. Gales possible by Mon aftn and Mon ngt. Continued
windy on Tue with sca cond possible all waters.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for ANZ331-332-340-
     345.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Friday for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for ANZ350-
     353-355.
     Gale Warning until noon EST Friday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JMC/DW
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JMC/DW