What's Happening In Newington

200
FXUS61 KOKX 172321
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
721 PM EDT Tue Mar 17 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No meaningful changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Cold with below average temperatures through Wednesday night.

2) No major storm systems through the forecast period, with just
a few minor disturbances late in the week and this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong late season cP air mass will be firmly entrenched
resulting in below average temperatures in the short term.
Thicknesses in the mid 510s and 5 kft temperatures around -14C
tonight will lead to an unseasonably cold night tonight and for
the day on Wednesday. Expect widespread 20s for lows tonight and
perhaps a few upper teens well north and northwest. Before the
winds shut down late tonight the wind will make it fell a good
10 degrees colder at times with wind chills mainly down into the
teens for the late night and early Wed AM. Despite the higher
March sun angle, temperatures will struggle to reach 40 for a
high on Wednesday on a lighter NW flow. After another
unseasonably cold night for Wednesday night, although with light
winds, temperatures don`t recover much until later in the
afternoon on Thursday where western portions of the area get
close to 50. This will be followed by warmer temps of 5 degrees
or so into Friday when more widespread 50s are likely,
especially away from the coastline.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Some weak disturbances embedded in the WNW flow regime will
progress through late Thu night into Fri AM, Fri night into
Sat AM, and a third system being a cold front late Sun into Sun
night. No hazardous weather or weather related impacts expected
with these disturbances.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR with high pressure through the TAF period.

WNW winds around 15 kt with gusts around 25 kt to begin the TAF
period. Winds and gusts will diminish through 04z, with
sustained winds around 10 kt or less by early Wednesday morning.
Winds will also back to the NW overnight. Winds will briefly
become light, possibly variable after 15z, but should prevail
out of the S or SE under 10 kt after 19-21z.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...
Gusts may linger a few hours longer than indicated this
evening/tonight.

Timing of wind shift to the S-SE on Wednesday may be off by 1-3
hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Wednesday Night-Thursday: VFR.

Thursday Night: Mainly VFR. Low chance for rain or snow shower
and MVFR, mainly NW of NYC metro.

Friday-Friday night: VFR during the day, with possible MVFR or
lower in -RA at night.

Saturday and Sunday: Chance of rain and MVFR. S-SW gusts 15-20
kt possible.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component
forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions gradually subside tonight across the non-ocean
waters, but should continue on the ocean into daytime Wed, and E
of Fire Island Inlet into Wed night.

Sub advisory conditions then prevail with high pressure
essentially remaining nearby Thu through Friday with most
ocean seas hovering around 4 ft much of the time.

A series of weak disturbances push through early Saturday and
once again late Sunday into Sunday night. Hazardous ocean seas
may be possible E of Fire Island Inlet from Sat afternoon into
Sunday night.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ331-335-
     338-340-345.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ332.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ350.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Wednesday night for
     ANZ353.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for ANZ355.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JE/Goodman
AVIATION...DS
MARINE...JE/Goodman