What's Happening In Newington

148
FXUS61 KOKX 052041
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
341 PM EST Wed Nov 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Deepening low pressure moves across upstate New York off the
coast of northern New England this evening, then into the
Canadian Maritime late tonight. The low drags a strong cold
front across the area this evening. High pressure then gradually
builds in behind the system Thursday into Thursday night. A
fast moving low tracks north of the area Friday night into
Saturday. Another low pressure impacts the area Sunday into
Monday with a complex frontal system remaining northeast of the
area through midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
***Strong Winds Tonight with a Wind Advisory in Effect***

Deepening low pressure across the eastern Great Lakes tracks
quickly across upstate New York and New England, moving off the
northern coast this evening. The low rapidly deepens tonight
into Thursday morning as it tracks into the Canadian Maritime. A
strong cold front passes through this evening preceded by
showers and possibly an isolated thunderstorm or two. Strong
gusty winds remain possible with the thunderstorms, and SPC has
the Lower Hudson Valley and southern Connecticut into the Twin
Forks of Long Island under a marginal risk. Much of the shower
and thunderstorm activity will be across the northern areas
where the best forcing will be. Generally followed the CAMs for
timing and precipitation probabilities. Low level winds are not
expected to be as strong as earlier thinking, and the High Wind
Watch was changed to a Wind Advisory for this evening into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Winds quickly diminish early Thursday morning as low pressure
departs well to the northeast and high pressure builds in to the
west. In the wake of the cold front temperatures Thursday will
be several degrees lower than Wednesday`s, with highs a few
degrees below seasonal levels. Cold air remains into Thursday
night with overnight lows around 5 degrees below normal. And
with nearly clear skies and light winds frost will become
widespread and a Frost Advisory may be needed where the growing
season has not yet ended.

The cool down will be short-lived as the high moves offshore
Friday and a return flow sets up, and increases ahead of another
fast moving low that will also pass well to the north, dragging
a cold front across the region late Friday night into Saturday
morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Key Points:

* Any rain showers early Saturday end by afternoon with another low
  pressure moving in from the west for Sunday. Another good chance
  for rain Sunday afternoon into early Monday. A mix of residual
  rain and snow showers is not entirely ruled out Monday night.

* Complex frontal system remains north of the area through midweek
  with the coldest air of the season moving in Monday and Tuesday.
  High temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s, with
  the coldest temperatures Monday night dropping into the 20s and
  low 30s for most. Lowest feels-like temperatures Monday night will
  be in the teens and 20s.

* Much of the long term will remain breezy under primarily W to NW
  flow. Breezy conditions largely expected Monday through Wednesday.

Several shortwaves rounding the base of a very large trough
over Eastern Canada will result in several developing low
pressure systems poised to impact the area this weekend through
the middle of next week.

The first frontal system will be exiting the area on Saturday
with the cold front passing through very early in the morning
with any residual showers in the area ending by afternoon. A
more robust shortwave forces a quickly developing low pressure
system over the Ohio Valley to slide into the Northeast on
Sunday. The upper trough deepens through Monday and Tuesday
reinforcing the complex frontal system which at this point will
be spanning much of the Eastern Seaboard. The trough lifts by
midweek with mid-level flow flattening out a bit and high
pressure positioned to the south of the area and broad low
pressure to the north.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
***HIGH IMPACT WINDS AND GUSTS LIKELY TONIGHT***

A cold front passes through tonight. High pressure builds on
Thursday.

VFR.

The winds increasE through the afternoon with gusts 25-30kt into the
early evening, then mostly 35-40kt at night, possibly peaking
up to 45 kt and veering WNW overnight. Winds diminish some
early Thursday morning, but still remain gusty through the
morning.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Highest gusts will be likely be with the passage of the front from
approx 03-04z through a few hours afterwards, but exact timing may
be off by 1-2 hours.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

Thursday afternoon: VFR. NW winds 15g25kt, diminishing late in the
day. Light to calm winds at night.

Friday: VFR. SW-S winds 10-15g20-25kt in the afternoon and evening.
Rain with sub VFR late at night.

Saturday: Sub VFR early in showers, otherwise VFR in the afternoon
with W winds.

Sunday: Pockets of sub VFR possible in showers, with SE/S winds.

Monday: Pocket of sub VFR possible early in showers, otherwise VFR
with W winds.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
A fast-moving and deepening low pressure system passes north of
the forecast waters tonight, dragging a strong cold front
across the region this evening. While winds and gusts will be
strong, gusts to storm force are no longer expected. The Storm
Watch is no longer in effect, and a Gale Warning has now been
issued for all the waters tonight into Thursday morning. A brief
period of SCA level gusts are possible in the increasing
southerly flow late this afternoon and ocean seas will likely
build to over 5 feet late int the afternoon. However, with the
brief period and winds becoming gale force by early evening have
just issued the Gale Warning. For late tonight, behind the cold
front, there still may be a few gusts approaching 50kt on the
ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet. In addition, an isolated
thunderstorm is possible across the eastern Sound, and eastern
ocean waters this evening which may also produce strong gusty
winds.

Conditions quickly improve Thursday morning west to east, and
the Gale Warning ends at 900 AM EST. Small craft gusts then
continue through Thursday, falling below advisory levels west to
east, late day into Thursday evening. Ocean seas also quickly
subside in the northwest flow, falling below 5 feet by late
Thursday evening.

A brief period of sub-SCA conditions are expected Thursday
night before southerly winds ramp up ahead of another front on
Friday with SCA conditions returning across all the waters by
Friday afternoon and continuing into Friday night.

Residual waves above 5 feet will result in the ocean
maintaining SCA conditions through early Saturday night. Late
Saturday night SCA conditions may briefly subside, but are
expected to become more widespread once again Sunday afternoon
with an increase of wind gusts and waves on the ocean. These
conditions persist through at least Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
There are no hydrologic concerns through early next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
The combination of high astronomical tides associated with a
full moon and a strong southerly flow ahead of an approaching
cold front on Friday, could produce some localized minor coastal
flooding at the times of high tide.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     CTZ005>012.
NY...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 AM EST Thursday for
     NJZ002-004-006-103>108.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-332-335-338-
     340-345-350-353-355.
     Low Water Advisory from 3 AM to 7 AM EST Thursday for ANZ331-
     332-335-340.
     Low Water Advisory from midnight tonight to 4 AM EST Thursday
     for ANZ338-345-350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MET/MW
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...MET/MW
HYDROLOGY...MET/MW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...